Probability of Survival Decision Aid - Project Support

Description

HM Coastguard (HMCG) currently uses the guidance published in the International Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue (IAMSAR) Manual to calculate the upper limit of realistic survival time. In the summer months, even when water temperatures are at the upper limit of those that can cause cold water shock, survival times according to the graph are in excess of 24 hours. As part of HMCGs ongoing collaboration with the US Coastguard (USCG), they have been granted access to the Probability of Survival Decision Making Aid (PSDA) software for a period of 12 months. During this period, HMCG will assess its suitability for use in the UK search and rescue region (SRR). It is proposed this will be done using a combination of application against historic incidents where the tool may have been employed to assess its effectiveness, and once this stage has taken place, theoretically apply the tool to live incidents to assess the impact it may have on decision making. HMCG has the manpower required for data entry and incident analysis, but do not have the expertise in analysing data in relation to survivability. Therefore, support is required to ensure that the application of the tool is suitable for continued trial.

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