UK Public Sector Contracts & Tenders

Under the Climate Change Act 2008 (section 57), an assessment of the risks facing the UK from the current and predicted impact of climate change is required every 5 years. The CCC is responsible for providing independent advice to the UK Government to inform that assessment. The Committee has recently provided its advice to the UK Government on the risks and opportunities facing the UK from current and future climate change as part of the third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) - this was summarised in its Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk which was published in summer 2021. The fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) is due for completion by June 2026. CCRA4 will assess climate change risks to the UK using a more spatially defined approach than previous CCRAs, giving an assessment of the spatial distribution of climate risks across the UK and a more localised view of adaptation needs. To help inform that design of the next CCRA we are looking to commission a piece of work to better understand non-Government user needs for the next CCRA. Whilst the priority audiences for the CCRA are Government users, we are conscious that there are a range of current and potential users outside of Government. By understanding their usage of climate risk information from the national risk assessment, including demands for more spatially refined and quantitative data, CCRA4 could be designed to best serve these needs alongside those of the Government audiences. ** See specification for more information **

Under the Climate Change Act 2008 (section 57), an assessment of the risks facing the UK from the current and predicted impact of climate change is required every 5 years. The CCC is responsible for providing independent advice to the UK Government to inform that assessment. The Committee has recently provided its advice to the UK Government on the risks and opportunities facing the UK from current and future climate change as part of the third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) - this was summarised in its Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk which was published in summer 2021. The fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) is due for completion by June 2026. CCRA4 will assess climate change risks to the UK using a more spatially defined approach than previous CCRAs, giving an assessment of the spatial distribution of climate risks across the UK and a more localised view of adaptation needs. To inform the next CCRA we are looking to commission a review of formally attributable impacts from past and present climate change in the UK. This review will draw on existing literature and cover both the attribution of changes in climate impact drivers as well as attributable impacts on human systems and ecosystems in the UK. ** See specification for more detail **

We are seeking to commission advice on where spatial climate change risk assessment can be most productive for understanding UK risk and adaptation effectiveness. This project is intended to inform the design of subsequent spatial research activities on quantifying climate risk (and its variably across the UK) and the effectiveness of adaptation (including costings). The assessment of productive focus areas for spatial risks assessment and the case studies and pilot modelling studies illustrating this will aim to better understand of where spatial analysis will be most useful and to the likely challenges associated with national-scale spatial risks assessments to deliver on the CCRA4 aims. The key tasks are: 1. Assessment of CCRA3 risks for appropriateness of spatial analysis approaches 2. Case studies of spatial analysis of UK climate risks and adaptation potential *** See specification for more detail ***

The Government has recently recognised the need to reduce traffic growth in their Transport Decarbonisation Plan and Net Zero Strategy. The Transport Decarbonisation Plan also set out a goal for half of all journeys in towns and cities to be walked or cycled by 2030 and a separate target to double cycling (relative to 2013 levels) and increase levels of walking per person by 2025. Our Sixth Carbon Budget advice identified four factors that could contribute to a reduction in private car travel: societal and technological changes, increase in car occupancy, modal shift to active travel and modal shift to public transport. This research focuses primarily on the latter two modal shift elements. Under the CCC's Balanced Net Zero Pathway scenario for the Sixth Carbon Budget we assume that 5-7% of car journeys could be shifted to walking and cycling (including e-bikes) by 2030, rising to 9-14% by 2050. We also assume that between 9-12% of car trips can be switched to public transport by 2030, increasing to 17-24% by 2050. These assumptions translate to lower percentages of distance, given that the shortest trips are most likely to switch. *** See Specification for more detail ***

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is looking to widen its understanding of policy responses that both address recent economic pressures on households and businesses and deliver potential for accelerated emissions reduction. In addressing the increases in household and business costs that have resulted from energy prices pushing up the rate of inflation, Government should seek to identify options that also contribute to the UK's decarbonisation goals. Many countries are introducing policies with these dual aims in response to similar challenges and learning lessons from their efforts can inform a well-targeted policy response in the UK. The CCC is looking to analyse the international policy landscape in several key sectors, including buildings and transport. To inform this work, the CCC is tendering a project 1) to establish an up-to-date summary of the key policies, including where relevant those targeted primarily at shifting behaviours, 2) where possible, evaluating (both quantitively and qualitatively as appropriate) these policies against a set of pre-determined criteria and analysing their potential effectiveness in a UK context and 3) identifying where and why potential cost-saving climate policies exist but have not been pursued in the UK and suggesting policies that would fill these identified gaps. Given the fast-paced nature of the crisis, the tendered work needs to be delivered by 19/04/2023, at a cost of £40,000 - £50,000 excluding VAT. The CCC's past reports are available here: http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/. *** See specification for more detail ***

1 Preamble The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Our purpose is to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change. 2 Background The CCC's Sixth Carbon Budget scenarios imply growing and enduring savings in operating costs, alongside a major investment programme. To 2030, the largest cost increases affecting households are for decarbonising buildings. Large savings are available for households in other areas, most notably in transport from the shift to electric cars. However, even in areas where costs are likely to fall relative to today, the distribution of costs and savings could create both 'winners' and 'losers' during the transition. Achieving Net Zero in the UK will also result in significant benefits to human health from better air quality, less noise, more active travel and a shift to healthier diets. Changes to land use and farming practices that cut emissions can also improve air quality and water quality and benefit biodiversity, resilience to climate change and bring recreational benefits. Benefits could partially or fully offset costs. Adapting to a changing climate could also result in co-benefits beyond direct policy impacts. As set out in the CCC's Sixth Carbon Budget advice, a key challenge on the path to Net Zero is how to spread the costs and benefits of the transition across the economy: for households, businesses and the Exchequer. The CCC commissioned Frontier Economics in early 2022 to develop a set of household archetypes (using Ofgem's archetypes as a starting point) and a distributional impacts model, to explore the costs and savings to households from decarbonising homes and transport. The archetypes developed are shown in Table 1. This analysis will only tell part of the story, as it does not yet incorporate the co-benefits enjoyed by households alongside any direct financial costs or savings. We are specifically interested in exploring the health co-benefits of our Sixth Carbon Budget scenarios from which the 15 archetypes developed by Frontier could benefit. *** Please specification for more detail ***

1 Introduction and summary of requirements / Preamble The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Our purpose is to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change. The aim of this project is to expand our understanding of the historical extent of energy efficiency retrofits, identify current market trends, and assess the capacity for existing supply chains to grow and deliver the volume of retrofits implied by our Sixth Carbon Budget Pathways. 2 Background Across the UK, the number of energy efficiency measures installed in homes through government-backed schemes peaked in [2012]. Since then, installations have fallen significantly. The Government's target is for all UK homes to be at least EPC C by [2030]. However, at the current rate of progress this target will not be reached for decades. There is good data available which describes the number of households that have received energy efficiency improvements through government schemes, such as the Energy Company Obligation (ECO), the Green Deal Framework, the Green Homes Grant Local Authority Delivery Scheme (LAD) and the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund (SHDF). However, we lack similar information about the extent of retrofits undertaken by owner occupiers, landlords and others without government backing. Rising energy prices have improved the economic case for energy efficiency. Reducing energy waste from homes is also an essential step to reduce emissions from buildings and reach Net Zero. As we (the CCC) are preparing work for our 2023 Progress Report, and the Seventh Carbon Budget, we want to update our approach to assessing the state of domestic energy efficiency. This entails developing a more comprehensive understanding of the current state of energy efficiency in UK homes, and the path the market has taken over the past fifteen years. We want to understand the remaining potential to improve homes, and the capacity within the market to grow supply chains to meet this need. We are tendering a project to develop this understanding. The tendered work needs to be delivered by [19/04/2023], at a cost of £32,000 - £40,000 excluding VAT. The CCC's past reports are available: http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/. *** Please see Specification for more detail ***

The CCC's advice on the level of Sixth Carbon Budget in the 2030s was accepted by Government in 2021 . Meeting the Sixth Carbon Budget and the longer-term Net Zero target by 2050 requires contribution from all sectors of the economy, including the agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. This will require a transformation in how land is used in the UK, with land released out of agricultural production for alternative uses such as afforestation, peatland restoration and bioenergy crops. Under the Balanced Pathway, we estimated that 9% of agricultural land would be needed to deliver these measures, rising to a fifth by 2050. In addition to climate change mitigation, transforming land use can deliver other multiple objectives, including adapting to climate change, biodiversity, and other environmental goals. The CCC's third Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3) identified eight priority risk areas that the Committee identified as being critical for adaptation in the next two years, four of which relate to the natural environment and the use of land. Effective action to change land use before projected climate change impacts occur must be investigated to enable land managers to protect and enhance the land's ability to maintain the delivery of essential ecosystem services. Our analysis to date has focused on estimating the impact of land use change and management on carbon and GHG emissions at the national level (i.e. England and each of the devolved administrations (DAs)). In practice, the changes that are needed to mitigate and prepare for climate change will vary across different locations according to a range of climatic, economic, social and environmental factors, at the farm, catchment and landscape level. The aim of this project therefore is to identify and quantify the impact of a set of plausible land use transitions for a number of representative rural land use 'archetypes' in England and the UK's DAs out to 2035 and 2050. The transitions should focus on changes in land use and management that deliver increased carbon sequestration and GHG emissions reductions, and which can also contribute to climate resilience, maintenance of food production, increased biodiversity and deliver co-benefits such as access to nature. In some cases, there may be trade-offs, and these should also be identified. In future, the CCC expect to develop full spatial scenarios for UK land-use change that deliver across the multiple objectives. This project does not aim to develop these spatial scenarios, but it will be used to inform any such future work. *** See soecification for more information ***

The Climate Change Committee The Climate Change Committee (CCC) was set up as part of the Climate Change Act. The CCC is an independent body that advises both on reducing emissions in the UK and adapting to the climate changes in the UK. The CCC's full range of past reports are available here: Publications - Climate Change Committee (theccc.org.uk) 2 Background Local authorities - delivering Net Zero and climate resilience The planning system is the key lever that local authorities hold to shape developments in their regions. This can impact the design of communities, in particular the extent to which their buildings, transport systems, and land align to the pathways required to meet Net Zero and adapt to the changing climate. The present National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) does include objectives which emphasise that local plans should consider sustainability and climate impacts. However, these are ill-defined in comparison to other objectives (e.g. housing) and there is currently significant variation between local authorities in how they are being implemented. The CPRE (Campaign to Protect Rural England) recently undertook a piece of research that explored 24 local plans outside Greater London, concluding that climate is not generally being considered as a central priority in the vast majority, and that changes to the NPPF are needed to make clear what local authorities are expected to do to ensure that their plans are compliant with the wider Net Zero strategy. Our project should seek to build upon this work by trying to understand what specific barriers hinder better alignment between local plans and sustainability objectives, and how these should be overcome. Several other recent studies explore how the planning system can play a key role in delivering Net Zero: • Green Alliance's 2020 paper on the local climate challenge highlighted a misalignment of priorities in the planning system, as well as practical difficulties around the appraisal tools used and the powers available to local authorities. • The use of these tools was explored in more detail in UK100's 2021 report on local authority powers. • The Centre for Cities set out a vision for improved spatial planning to enable lower carbon community development in its 2021 work Other recent reports have produced adaptation guidance based on the NPPF and National Adaptation Programme (NAP) for local authorities. However, there is currently no mandatory requirement for local authorities to report on adaptation, and a lack of research combining the practical and structural barriers for delivering this guidance and recommendations for aligning adaptation/mitigation: • ADEPT, Defra and Local Adaptation Advisory Panel Guide • Town and Coastal Planning Association Adaptation guide • Local Partnerships Climate Adaptation Toolkit, which summarises the risks highlighted by the 3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment for local authorities. *** See Specification for more detail ***

1 Introduction and summary of requirements / Preamble The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Our purpose is to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change. 2 Background In November 2020, the UK Government announced that all new sales of conventional petrol and diesel light-duty vehicles must end by 2030. Therefore, the automotive market will need to transition to electric vehicles. As the UK's transition to EVs ramps up, charging infrastructure will be needed to meet the demand of all drivers, whilst ensuring that the network is able to deliver the amount of charging required. It is likely that there will be certain periods throughout the year where demand will be higher than the average levels of travel demand on which the majority of charging infrastructure plans are likely to be based. For example, during winter months and particularly around the Christmas period, demand is expected to be higher as a result of higher consumer demand for home delivery, maintenance and medical services, as well as increased personal travel on certain days. Daily traffic flow data published by National Highways from their network of MIDAS detectors along the strategic road network can be used to infer information about demand variation along different roads. This data shows that, in 2019, on the motorway in one region there were nine days (mostly around bank holiday weekends) for which car traffic was over 10% above the typical weekly peak (Fridays). When compared to the overall average demand across the year, these peaks were around 30-40% higher. By contrast, demand on the motorway in another region was much more stable, with no days surpassing 10% above the typical weekly peak and variation from the overall daily average never exceeding 20%. This shows that there can be rare peak events on heavily trafficked tourist roads that see traffic climb considerably above typical demand. We would expect this to translate to excess peak demand for en-route charging at service stations along such roads. However, these patterns are not uniform, with demand on roads that are less associated with leisure travel showing less variation. Therefore, it is clear that, in some regions, there will be points across the year where demand is significantly higher than average. This raises the question - is the current plan for charging infrastructure deployment enough to meet the needs of drivers on these peak demand days? More in-depth exploration of data, such as National Highways, could be used to generate evidence-based peak demand scenarios. *** See Specification for more detail *** Additional information: The CCC project manager will be Jaya Jassi/Eoin Devane Tel: 07979117567 or 07920541882 Email: Jaya.jassi@theccc.org.uk or eoin.devane@theccc.org.uk

1 Introduction and summary of requirements / Preamble The Climate Change Committee is starting work on the 4th UK Climate Change Risk Assessment due to be published in 2026. To inform this, the CCC is tendering a project to understand the most up-to-date methodologies for valuing 1) the risk to the UK from climate change and 2) adaptation policies available to address this risk and 3) identifying the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches and where they would leave gaps. Given project timescales, the tendered work needs to be delivered by the end of April 2023, at a cost of £50,000 - £80,000 plus VAT. The CCC's past reports are available here: http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports The outputs from the 3rd Climate Change Risk assessment are available here: http://www.ukclimaterisk.org 2 Background The Climate Change Committee The Climate Change Committee was set up as part of the Climate Change Act. The CCC is an independent body that advises the UK and Devolved Governments on both reducing emissions in the UK and adapting to the impacts of climate changes. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Under the Climate Change Act 2008 (section 57), an assessment of the risks facing the UK from the current and predicted impact of climate change is required every 5 years. The CCC is responsible for providing independent advice to the UK Government to inform that assessment. The Committee has recently provided its advice to the UK Government on the risks and opportunities facing the UK from current and future climate change as part of the third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) - this was summarised in its Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk which was published in summer 2021. The CCC's advice on the fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) is due for completion by June 2026. CCRA4 is aiming to consider different ways of presenting the economic consequences of climate change to the UK economy using a more integrated approach than was possible under the previous Climate Change Risk Assessments. It is also looking to consider how potential adaptation policy packages can be appraised. To inform this programme of economic analysis, the CCC is seeking to commission a creative and innovative piece of work establishing evidence on the existing methodologies adopted to-date for valuing climate impacts and appraising adaptation policy packages. Most importantly, the CCC are looking to encourage creative and innovative proposals on alternative/new methodologies to help inform the best approach and method design for the economic assessment to be used in CCRA4. *** See Specification for more information ***

1 Background The Climate Change Committee The Climate Change Committee (CCC) was set up as part of the Climate Change Act. The CCC is an independent body that advises both on reducing emissions in the UK and adapting to the climate changes in the UK. The CCC's full range of past reports are available here: http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Under the Climate Change Act 2008 (section 57), an assessment of the risks facing the UK from the current and predicted impact of climate change is required every 5 years. The CCC is responsible for providing independent advice to the UK Government to inform that assessment. The Committee has recently provided its advice to the UK Government on the risks and opportunities facing the UK from current and future climate change as part of the third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) - this was summarised in its Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk which was published in summer 2021. The fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) is due for completion by June 2026. CCRA4 will assess climate change risks to the UK using a more spatially defined approach than previous CCRAs, giving an assessment of the spatial distribution of climate risks across the UK and a more localised view of adaptation needs. In order to assess climate risks at a spatial scale in CCRA4, the CCC are seeking to identify existing spatial modelling tools, initiatives and datasets that can be used to assess the spatial distribution of climate risks across the economy and the natural environment. 2 Aims and Objectives The aim of this project is to review the current landscape of spatial modelling of climate risks to the UK. This project will seek to identify existing models capable of UK-wide spatially explicit climate risk assessment within different sectors and ongoing modelling initiatives producing spatially explicit outputs relevant to UK climate risk assessment. The purpose of this exercise is to understand what tools and existing simulations could be used to inform spatial risk assessment in CCRA4. **** See specification for more details ****

Background The Climate Change Committee   The Climate Change Committee (CCC) was set up as part of the Climate Change Act. The CCC is an independent body that advises both on reducing emissions in the UK and adapting to climate change in the UK.   The CCC's full range of past reports are available here:    http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/.   The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment          Under the Climate Change Act 2008 (section 57), an assessment of the risks facing the UK from the current and predicted impact of climate change is required every 5 years. The CCC is responsible for providing independent advice to the UK Government to inform that assessment.   In summer 2021, the Committee provided its advice to the UK Government on the risks and opportunities facing the UK from current and future climate change as part of the third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). This was summarised in its Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk.   The Committee's advice on the fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) is due for completion by June 2026. CCRA4 will aim to assess climate change risks to the UK using a more holistic, sectoral approach than previous CCRAs, so that the interactions between risks and the co-benefits of different adaptation actions may be better understood. In particular, the outputs of CCRA4 will include a 'Well-adapted UK' report that will aim to synthesise in-depth, systemic assessments of the risks to key areas of the economy and society, as well as the interdependencies and cross-cutting interventions between these, bringing together a strategic case for adaptation action. We intend to base these systemic assessments on tailored, in-depth and quantitative modelling commissioned by the CCC, as well as the wider published evidence base. To ensure that the outputs of these assessments - and hence the outputs of CCRA4 - are as useful as possible for the priority audience of Government stakeholders and decision makers, the specifications for the modelling will be co-developed with these stakeholders. By tailoring the research to end-user and decision-maker need, CCRA4 aims to be well placed to drive adaptation action. The co-development of the outputs and evidence base will continue throughout the CCRA4 cycle, but the first step is to build an initial understanding of stakeholder priorities and where the proposed in-depth, systemic assessments can add most value and how. In particular, this first phase of engagement with stakeholders will help to inform the topics and sectors that will be the focus of tailored modelling projects going forwards, by highlighting where such research would be feasible and where it would add most value for driving adaptation action. **** See Specification for more detail ****

The CCC's advice on the level of Sixth Carbon Budget (for the 2030s) was accepted by Government in 2021. Meeting the Sixth Carbon Budget and the longer-term Net Zero target by 2050 requires contribution from all sectors of the economy, including the agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. This will require a transformation in how land is used in the UK, with some land converted from agricultural production for alternative lower-emission uses, such as afforestation, peatland restoration and bioenergy crops. How and where we transition agricultural land to these other land uses remains to be understood. Transforming the UK's land use is needed so that we can deliver other objectives, including for climate adaptation and nature recovery. The CCC's third Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3) identified priority risk areas as being critical for climate adaptation in the next two years, four of which relate to the natural environment and the use of land: • Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions. • Risks to soil health from increased flooding and drought • Risks to crops, livestock and commercial trees from multiple hazards • Risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species from multiple hazards. We need to understand effective action to change land use before further climate change impacts the land, which will enable land managers to protect and enhance the land's ability to maintain ecosystem services delivery. Our analysis has focused on estimating the impact of land-use change/management on carbon and GHG emissions at the national level (i.e. England and each of the devolved administrations (DAs)). In practice, the changes needed to mitigate and prepare for climate change vary depending on climatic, economic, social and environmental factors, at the farm, catchment and landscape level. The aim of this tender is to quantify the impact of a set of plausible land-use transitions (towards higher-carbon stores, resilient, productive and nature-rich state for a range of representative rural land use 'archetypes' in England and the UK's DAs , then estimate climate risks to these land-use transitions under various degrees of warming. This project has been split into two parts: *** - See specification for more detail - ***

We are currently preparing our advice for the Seventh Carbon Budget (CB7) and the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4), both due in 2025. • CB7 will set a limit on the UK's territorial emissions over the years 2038 to 2042. Our advice will inform what that level should be; and the budget will then be voted on by Parliament to give it the force of law. At the core of our advice will be a pathway for UK emissions from now to 2050, based on modelling of realistic abatement strategies across the economy. • CCRA4 will provide an update of the priority risks and opportunities for the UK as it experiences the effects of a changing climate today and in the years to come. It will set out how these risks are linked across society and the benefits of actions that can be taken to reduce these risks. Our independent advice will provide priority actions for the Government and others to build resilience in the UK. Buildings are an important sector in both reports; they account for 17% of direct emissions in the UK and face risks from a changing climate, such as flooding and overheating. To inform our work we intend to build models which enable us to generate credible pathways for eliminating emissions from homes and assess the scope for adapting homes to a changing climate. We require a contractor to produce the archetypes dataset to be used in these models. This dataset will be a key input into our models and will need to provide a valid representation of the UK's 28 million existing homes. *** See Specification for more detail ***

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is looking to widen its understanding of the feasibility of carrying out large scale greenhouse gas removals in the UK using Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (DACCS). As we consider emissions over the Seventh Carbon Budget period (2038 - 2042), we are examining the role different engineered removals technologies could play in the UK in those years and assessing their interactions with other sectors including power and land use. The Committee expects that DACCS will play a role in delivering engineered removals over the Seventh Carbon Budget period. For the purpose of this work, we define DACCS as technologies directly capture CO2 from the atmosphere through chemical and mechanical processes to produce a concentrated CO2 output that is subsequently injected into the subsurface for secure storage. This project should assess the range of different direct air capture approaches in development and the variation in their required inputs and costs. DACCS has progressed in recent years, with small-scale projects in operation and larger projects expected to be built in the next few years. While there are no DACCS sites currently operating in the UK, there is growing momentum behind this technology and businesses in hard-to-abate sectors have expressed interest in funding future projects. DACCS is identified as a key technology in future global greenhouse gas removals, but there are some areas that require further research before the extent of its role, especially in specific locations, can be determined. The CCC is looking to expand its evidence base and develop modelling which assesses the possible scale and rate of DACCS deployment in the UK. There are many factors that influence this feasibility, such as international progress on developing these technologies, its cost, energy and material input requirements, and on the availability of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) network infrastructure. The Committee would like to build a detailed picture of how these factors interact with UK [geographies], infrastructure and power generation. To inform this work, the CCC is tendering a project to explore 1) when the first large-scale (meaning projects removing at least 1 Mt CO2/year) UK DACCS projects could be deployed and how quickly UK capacity might be expanded, 2) the implications of this scale-up for factors including energy demand, CCS infrastructure and jobs along the supply chain in the UK and 3) how the costs and resource implications of deploying DACCS in the UK compare with similar efforts abroad. Given that this work is intended to inform CCC modelling for Seventh Carbon Budget advice, the tendered work needs to be delivered by mid-February 2024 at a cost of £60,000 including VAT. *** See specification for more detail ***

Surface transport is currently the UK's highest-emitting sector, and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) will play a significant role in changing this on the UK's path to Net Zero. This transition is now well underway, and we have seen a rapid increase in EV uptake over recent years, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) making up 17% of new car sales and 6% of new van sales in 2022. To build on this early progress, the Government is expected to introduce a zero-emission vehicle mandate from 2024 that will require new sales of zero-emission vehicles (most likely BEVs) to scale up each year to reach the majority of new car and van sales by the end of the decade. As a result of this policy, along with market trends, we now have clarity on the minimum rate at which EV sales can be expected to grow through the 2020s. Beyond this, sales are expected to continue growing to meet the requirement that all new cars and vans must have zero tailpipe emissions by 2035. These are likely to be almost exclusively BEVs. While the zero-emission vehicle mandate provides a trajectory for how the share of EVs within the new car market will scale up, what ultimately matters in terms of reducing emissions is the rate at which the entire fleet of cars and vans turns over from petrol/diesel to electric. As a typical car or van currently remains on the road for around 14 years, this may take some time even once EVs reach full market penetration, and some older petrol and diesel vehicles are likely to continue running for a considerable period. These vehicles will also continue to be sold in the used vehicle market, alongside a growing market for used EVs. This research is looking to understand more about this 'tail' phase of the EV rollout, in particular looking at the impacts it could have on the rate at which the fleet switches to EVs and exploring potential interventions that could accelerate this process. This research will be used to inform updates to the CCC's assumed pathways for EV uptake. **** See Specification for more details ****

The UK Climate Change Act 2008 requires that every five years, the UK government must publish a climate change risk assessment. UK Government, and each of the 3 devolved administrations, must then create National Adaptation Programmes, including actions to address the risks in the most recent risk assessment. The Fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) Government Report is due to be published in January 2027. As with CCRA2 and CCRA3, CCRA4 will be based on an Independent Assessment that the CCC has been commissioned by Defra to lead, described in this document as the Climate Change Risk Assessment Independent Assessment (CCRA4-IA). CCRA4-IA will be published in mid-2026. The CCRA3 Independent Assessment (CCRA3-IA) was published in June 2021. This assessment focused on development of a Technical Report (which was the basis for a range of other outputs, including national summaries and sectoral briefings) as well as supplementary research. The CCRA3-IA Technical Report covered the underlying analysis and assessment of the level of risk or opportunity from climate change to the UK as well as the latest understanding of current and future climate change in the UK. This included an urgency framework based on a review of current and future adaptation action, to aid the prioritisation of the 61 risks and opportunities identified. CCRA3-IA included greater emphasis on accessibility for the primary audience of Government and Devolved Administrations, including hosting of a UK Climate Risk website (www.ukclimaterisk.org) . As with CCRA3-IA, the CCRA4-IA will include a technical report that provides an authoritative assessment of the most up-to-date peer-reviewed literature on climate risks and opportunities to the UK, and their urgency for adaptation action over the coming five years. This report will focus on literature published since the cut-off date for inclusion of evidence in CCRA3-IA in 2021. A key aim for the CCRA4-IA will be to produce outputs that are directly usable and accessible for decision support by key, non-technical audiences - particularly for national Government officials working to develop national adaptation plans and programmes across the UK. The primary purpose of the CCRA4-IA Technical Report is to identify the range of climate change risks and opportunities to the UK and assess the urgency for action for national adaptation policy programmes. This report will seek to answer the exam question: "How has the evidence on the full range of risks that face the UK, and their urgency, continued to evolve over the last five years?" **** See Specification for further details ****

We are currently preparing our advice for the Seventh Carbon Budget (CB7) and the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4), both due in 2025. • CB7 will set a limit on the UK's territorial emissions over the years 2038 to 2042. Our advice will inform what that level should be; and the budget will then be voted on by Parliament to give it the force of law. At the core of our advice will be a pathway for UK emissions from now to 2050, based on modelling of realistic abatement strategies across the economy. • CCRA4 will provide an update of the priority risks and opportunities for the UK as it experiences the effects of a changing climate today and in the years to come. It will set out how these risks are linked across society and the benefits of actions that can be taken to reduce these risks. Our independent advice will provide priority actions for the Government and others to build resilience in the UK. Buildings are an important sector in both reports; they account for 17% of direct emissions in the UK and face risks from a changing climate, such as flooding and overheating. To inform our work we intend to build models which enable us to generate credible pathways for eliminating emissions from homes and assess the scope for adapting homes to a changing climate. We require a contractor to produce the assumptions dataset to be used in these models. This dataset will be a key input into our models and will need to provide a valid representation of the costs and potential benefits of installing a range of energy efficiency and low carbon heating measures. *** See supporting documents for more information ***