Understanding the requirements and barriers for modal shift, away from cars to alternative modes of transport, in the UK

Description

The Government has recently recognised the need to reduce traffic growth in their Transport Decarbonisation Plan and Net Zero Strategy. The Transport Decarbonisation Plan also set out a goal for half of all journeys in towns and cities to be walked or cycled by 2030 and a separate target to double cycling (relative to 2013 levels) and increase levels of walking per person by 2025. Our Sixth Carbon Budget advice identified four factors that could contribute to a reduction in private car travel: societal and technological changes, increase in car occupancy, modal shift to active travel and modal shift to public transport. This research focuses primarily on the latter two modal shift elements. Under the CCC's Balanced Net Zero Pathway scenario for the Sixth Carbon Budget we assume that 5-7% of car journeys could be shifted to walking and cycling (including e-bikes) by 2030, rising to 9-14% by 2050. We also assume that between 9-12% of car trips can be switched to public transport by 2030, increasing to 17-24% by 2050. These assumptions translate to lower percentages of distance, given that the shortest trips are most likely to switch. *** See Specification for more detail ***

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