Homes England Economic Forecasting and Scenario Services

Award outcome

Description

Homes England requires quarterly macroeconomic and housing forecasting and scenario services for the UK, as well as regions and local authorities of England, in order to assist in its delivery of market intelligence and planning of current and future housing and regeneration investments through its newly established subsidiary, the National Housing Bank (NHB). As a public body audited by the National Audit Office (NAO), Homes England must maintain stringent governance and control standards, ensuring that all forecasting inputs, assumptions and outputs are robust, transparent, and fully auditable. Homes England uses baseline macroeconomic and housing forecasts, complemented by two distinct scenarios (upside and downside), to plan its delivery and expenditure in the coming financial years. These forecasts play a critical role across several core Agency functions. They are used extensively by our Risk, Finance, and Business Planning and Performance teams to support assessments of portfolio resilience, programme performance, and future market conditions. In particular, the forecasts underpin our International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation (IFRS) 9 calculations to measure Homes England's financial position. They also underpin strategic planning for future intervention, capital deployment and regeneration activity by highlighting potential turning points, emerging risks and structural shifts across housing and macroeconomic markets. It is essential that all forecasts and scenarios are based on reasonable assumptions, robust modelling evidenced by a track record of performance against observed data, and are consistent with current market standards, prevailing economic outlooks, and material risks. As such, the forecasts must be derived from a pre-existing, reputable model.

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