UK Public Sector Contracts & Tenders

Background The Climate Change Committee   The Climate Change Committee (CCC) was set up as part of the Climate Change Act. The CCC is an independent body that advises both on reducing emissions in the UK and adapting to climate change in the UK.   The CCC's full range of past reports are available here:    http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/.   The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment          Under the Climate Change Act 2008 (section 57), an assessment of the risks facing the UK from the current and predicted impact of climate change is required every 5 years. The CCC is responsible for providing independent advice to the UK Government to inform that assessment.   In summer 2021, the Committee provided its advice to the UK Government on the risks and opportunities facing the UK from current and future climate change as part of the third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). This was summarised in its Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk.   The Committee's advice on the fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) is due for completion by June 2026. CCRA4 will aim to assess climate change risks to the UK using a more holistic, sectoral approach than previous CCRAs, so that the interactions between risks and the co-benefits of different adaptation actions may be better understood. In particular, the outputs of CCRA4 will include a 'Well-adapted UK' report that will aim to synthesise in-depth, systemic assessments of the risks to key areas of the economy and society, as well as the interdependencies and cross-cutting interventions between these, bringing together a strategic case for adaptation action. We intend to base these systemic assessments on tailored, in-depth and quantitative modelling commissioned by the CCC, as well as the wider published evidence base. To ensure that the outputs of these assessments - and hence the outputs of CCRA4 - are as useful as possible for the priority audience of Government stakeholders and decision makers, the specifications for the modelling will be co-developed with these stakeholders. By tailoring the research to end-user and decision-maker need, CCRA4 aims to be well placed to drive adaptation action. The co-development of the outputs and evidence base will continue throughout the CCRA4 cycle, but the first step is to build an initial understanding of stakeholder priorities and where the proposed in-depth, systemic assessments can add most value and how. In particular, this first phase of engagement with stakeholders will help to inform the topics and sectors that will be the focus of tailored modelling projects going forwards, by highlighting where such research would be feasible and where it would add most value for driving adaptation action. **** See Specification for more detail **** Additional information: 19.05.23 - Please see attachment SW-0523 The CCC would like to clarify some of the details of this specification following queries from potential suppliers. We recognise that the timescales for this project are very challenging and that there is a need to be mindful of what can feasibly be achieved within the project timelines. For example, we recognise achieving full consensus within working groups may not be possible and the detail of the recommendations in task 5 will be limited by the detail of the working groups' discussions. With this in mind, we want to ensure a quick start is possible following kick-off and that workshop discussions are not starting from a blank page. To facilitate this, the CCC will provide: • Attendees lists for the workshop. The CCC will be responsible for contacting and liaising with attendees and managing attendance, recognising the importance of having the right stakeholders present. Finalised dates for workshops will be agreed with the contractor at kick off but attendees will be approached in advance of this. • Pre-workshop briefing materials. The pre-workshop briefing materials prepared by the CCC and shared with attendees will include background material on the project as well as sector specific information on possible objectives, risks, hazards, exposure, vulnerabilities and adaptation actions derived from the CCC's adaptation monitoring framework and the UK's third climate change risk assessment (CCRA3). In addition to preparing workshop attendees, the CCC will use these materials and wider preparatory work to set the scope for workshop discussions and inform the workshop agendas alongside suppliers' bids. Bidders' suggestions for how the tasks should be structured will be welcomed alongside this input from the CCC. This includes suggestions for the use of the optional workshops but the timescales in the specification will need to be adhered to. • Consultation on recommendations. The recommendations required in task 5 will be produced in consultation with the CCC, noting the detail of these will be limited by the scope of working group discussion. The recommendations should focus on which sectors, or areas within those sectors, should be prioritised, rather than details of potential modelling approaches, although such details are useful to record when they arise. The CCC will be using the recommendations alongside the outputs of other research projects and broader information to come to a final decision on what sectors to prioritise for more detailed sector analysis. Consultation with the CCC and any learning that can feed into the recommendations should develop and be communicated on an ongoing basis as the project progresses. 24.05.23 - contact number updated

The CCC's advice on the level of Sixth Carbon Budget (for the 2030s) was accepted by Government in 2021. Meeting the Sixth Carbon Budget and the longer-term Net Zero target by 2050 requires contribution from all sectors of the economy, including the agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. This will require a transformation in how land is used in the UK, with some land converted from agricultural production for alternative lower-emission uses, such as afforestation, peatland restoration and bioenergy crops. How and where we transition agricultural land to these other land uses remains to be understood. Transforming the UK's land use is needed so that we can deliver other objectives, including for climate adaptation and nature recovery. The CCC's third Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3) identified priority risk areas as being critical for climate adaptation in the next two years, four of which relate to the natural environment and the use of land: • Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions. • Risks to soil health from increased flooding and drought • Risks to crops, livestock and commercial trees from multiple hazards • Risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species from multiple hazards. We need to understand effective action to change land use before further climate change impacts the land, which will enable land managers to protect and enhance the land's ability to maintain ecosystem services delivery. Our analysis has focused on estimating the impact of land-use change/management on carbon and GHG emissions at the national level (i.e. England and each of the devolved administrations (DAs)). In practice, the changes needed to mitigate and prepare for climate change vary depending on climatic, economic, social and environmental factors, at the farm, catchment and landscape level. The aim of this tender is to quantify the impact of a set of plausible land-use transitions (towards higher-carbon stores, resilient, productive and nature-rich state for a range of representative rural land use 'archetypes' in England and the UK's DAs , then estimate climate risks to these land-use transitions under various degrees of warming. This project has been split into two parts: *** - See specification for more detail - ***

We are currently preparing our advice for the Seventh Carbon Budget (CB7) and the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4), both due in 2025. • CB7 will set a limit on the UK's territorial emissions over the years 2038 to 2042. Our advice will inform what that level should be; and the budget will then be voted on by Parliament to give it the force of law. At the core of our advice will be a pathway for UK emissions from now to 2050, based on modelling of realistic abatement strategies across the economy. • CCRA4 will provide an update of the priority risks and opportunities for the UK as it experiences the effects of a changing climate today and in the years to come. It will set out how these risks are linked across society and the benefits of actions that can be taken to reduce these risks. Our independent advice will provide priority actions for the Government and others to build resilience in the UK. Buildings are an important sector in both reports; they account for 17% of direct emissions in the UK and face risks from a changing climate, such as flooding and overheating. To inform our work we intend to build models which enable us to generate credible pathways for eliminating emissions from homes and assess the scope for adapting homes to a changing climate. We require a contractor to produce the archetypes dataset to be used in these models. This dataset will be a key input into our models and will need to provide a valid representation of the UK's 28 million existing homes. *** See Specification for more detail ***

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is looking to widen its understanding of the feasibility of carrying out large scale greenhouse gas removals in the UK using Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (DACCS). As we consider emissions over the Seventh Carbon Budget period (2038 - 2042), we are examining the role different engineered removals technologies could play in the UK in those years and assessing their interactions with other sectors including power and land use. The Committee expects that DACCS will play a role in delivering engineered removals over the Seventh Carbon Budget period. For the purpose of this work, we define DACCS as technologies directly capture CO2 from the atmosphere through chemical and mechanical processes to produce a concentrated CO2 output that is subsequently injected into the subsurface for secure storage. This project should assess the range of different direct air capture approaches in development and the variation in their required inputs and costs. DACCS has progressed in recent years, with small-scale projects in operation and larger projects expected to be built in the next few years. While there are no DACCS sites currently operating in the UK, there is growing momentum behind this technology and businesses in hard-to-abate sectors have expressed interest in funding future projects. DACCS is identified as a key technology in future global greenhouse gas removals, but there are some areas that require further research before the extent of its role, especially in specific locations, can be determined. The CCC is looking to expand its evidence base and develop modelling which assesses the possible scale and rate of DACCS deployment in the UK. There are many factors that influence this feasibility, such as international progress on developing these technologies, its cost, energy and material input requirements, and on the availability of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) network infrastructure. The Committee would like to build a detailed picture of how these factors interact with UK [geographies], infrastructure and power generation. To inform this work, the CCC is tendering a project to explore 1) when the first large-scale (meaning projects removing at least 1 Mt CO2/year) UK DACCS projects could be deployed and how quickly UK capacity might be expanded, 2) the implications of this scale-up for factors including energy demand, CCS infrastructure and jobs along the supply chain in the UK and 3) how the costs and resource implications of deploying DACCS in the UK compare with similar efforts abroad. Given that this work is intended to inform CCC modelling for Seventh Carbon Budget advice, the tendered work needs to be delivered by mid-February 2024 at a cost of £60,000 including VAT. *** See specification for more detail ***

Surface transport is currently the UK's highest-emitting sector, and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) will play a significant role in changing this on the UK's path to Net Zero. This transition is now well underway, and we have seen a rapid increase in EV uptake over recent years, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) making up 17% of new car sales and 6% of new van sales in 2022. To build on this early progress, the Government is expected to introduce a zero-emission vehicle mandate from 2024 that will require new sales of zero-emission vehicles (most likely BEVs) to scale up each year to reach the majority of new car and van sales by the end of the decade. As a result of this policy, along with market trends, we now have clarity on the minimum rate at which EV sales can be expected to grow through the 2020s. Beyond this, sales are expected to continue growing to meet the requirement that all new cars and vans must have zero tailpipe emissions by 2035. These are likely to be almost exclusively BEVs. While the zero-emission vehicle mandate provides a trajectory for how the share of EVs within the new car market will scale up, what ultimately matters in terms of reducing emissions is the rate at which the entire fleet of cars and vans turns over from petrol/diesel to electric. As a typical car or van currently remains on the road for around 14 years, this may take some time even once EVs reach full market penetration, and some older petrol and diesel vehicles are likely to continue running for a considerable period. These vehicles will also continue to be sold in the used vehicle market, alongside a growing market for used EVs. This research is looking to understand more about this 'tail' phase of the EV rollout, in particular looking at the impacts it could have on the rate at which the fleet switches to EVs and exploring potential interventions that could accelerate this process. This research will be used to inform updates to the CCC's assumed pathways for EV uptake. **** See Specification for more details ****

Wastewater treatment emissions are a small proportion of total UK emissions, but this proportion increases by 2050 in our Sixth Carbon Budget scenarios, as other sectors largely decarbonise while wastewater emissions only fall by a small amount. Assumptions on emission reductions from wastewater in our Sixth Carbon Budget scenarios were based on academic papers and discussions with academics and stakeholders in the water industry. This resulted in emission reductions of 20% by 2030 in three of our scenarios, including the Balanced Pathway. This increased to a 50% reduction by 2050 in two of our scenarios (Widespread Innovation and Tailwinds). The main solutions assumed to deliver this abatement were: • Across all scenarios - conversion of wastewater treatment plants to advanced anaerobic digestion systems (increasing the amount of biogas extracted and reducing methane emissions) and process optimisation improvements and leak identification using on-site emissions monitoring of CH4 and N2O. • More ambitious scenarios - more innovative options such as membrane-aerated biofilm reactors or partial nitrification-Anammox processes. Water companies in England and Wales submitted their draft business plans to Ofwat in October 2023. These plans are going through an ongoing verification process, so are subject to change, but include plans for wastewater treatment out to 2034, with associated emissions pathways. Aggregate wastewater emissions in draft plans are relatively steady over the period in question - differing significantly from the 20% reduction assumed in our Balanced Pathway. There is significant variation between individual water companies, with changes in emissions over the period ranging from a 60% reduction to an 50% increase by 2034, relative to 2021/22 levels. **** See Specification for more details ****

The UK Climate Change Act 2008 requires that every five years, the UK government must publish a climate change risk assessment. UK Government, and each of the 3 devolved administrations, must then create National Adaptation Programmes, including actions to address the risks in the most recent risk assessment. The Fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) Government Report is due to be published in January 2027. As with CCRA2 and CCRA3, CCRA4 will be based on an Independent Assessment that the CCC has been commissioned by Defra to lead, described in this document as the Climate Change Risk Assessment Independent Assessment (CCRA4-IA). CCRA4-IA will be published in mid-2026. The CCRA3 Independent Assessment (CCRA3-IA) was published in June 2021. This assessment focused on development of a Technical Report (which was the basis for a range of other outputs, including national summaries and sectoral briefings) as well as supplementary research. The CCRA3-IA Technical Report covered the underlying analysis and assessment of the level of risk or opportunity from climate change to the UK as well as the latest understanding of current and future climate change in the UK. This included an urgency framework based on a review of current and future adaptation action, to aid the prioritisation of the 61 risks and opportunities identified. CCRA3-IA included greater emphasis on accessibility for the primary audience of Government and Devolved Administrations, including hosting of a UK Climate Risk website (www.ukclimaterisk.org) . As with CCRA3-IA, the CCRA4-IA will include a technical report that provides an authoritative assessment of the most up-to-date peer-reviewed literature on climate risks and opportunities to the UK, and their urgency for adaptation action over the coming five years. This report will focus on literature published since the cut-off date for inclusion of evidence in CCRA3-IA in 2021. A key aim for the CCRA4-IA will be to produce outputs that are directly usable and accessible for decision support by key, non-technical audiences - particularly for national Government officials working to develop national adaptation plans and programmes across the UK. The primary purpose of the CCRA4-IA Technical Report is to identify the range of climate change risks and opportunities to the UK and assess the urgency for action for national adaptation policy programmes. This report will seek to answer the exam question: "How has the evidence on the full range of risks that face the UK, and their urgency, continued to evolve over the last five years?" **** See Specification for further details ****

We are currently preparing our advice for the Seventh Carbon Budget (CB7) and the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4), both due in 2025. • CB7 will set a limit on the UK's territorial emissions over the years 2038 to 2042. Our advice will inform what that level should be; and the budget will then be voted on by Parliament to give it the force of law. At the core of our advice will be a pathway for UK emissions from now to 2050, based on modelling of realistic abatement strategies across the economy. • CCRA4 will provide an update of the priority risks and opportunities for the UK as it experiences the effects of a changing climate today and in the years to come. It will set out how these risks are linked across society and the benefits of actions that can be taken to reduce these risks. Our independent advice will provide priority actions for the Government and others to build resilience in the UK. Buildings are an important sector in both reports; they account for 17% of direct emissions in the UK and face risks from a changing climate, such as flooding and overheating. To inform our work we intend to build models which enable us to generate credible pathways for eliminating emissions from homes and assess the scope for adapting homes to a changing climate. We require a contractor to produce the assumptions dataset to be used in these models. This dataset will be a key input into our models and will need to provide a valid representation of the costs and potential benefits of installing a range of energy efficiency and low carbon heating measures. *** See supporting documents for more information ***

1 Introduction and summary of requirements The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act in 2008. The CCC has been commissioned by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to conduct the Fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Independent Assessment (CCRA4-IA). This will assess the risk the UK faces from Climate Change across society and the economy and the potential adaptation actions that could be taken. We are looking to conduct this assessment at as narrow a spatial level as possible. 2 Background The CCC is currently collecting evidence and preparing its advice for the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment Independent Assessment (CCRA4), due for publication in 2026. This will look to assess the risks the UK faces today and in the future. It will also look to update the priority scoring of risks from CCRA3. It will assess adaptation actions that can be taken to reduce these risks. A key output the CCC is looking to produce for CCRA4 is the assessment of risk by household, business and local area/community characteristics. This project is looking to build the evidence of vulnerability under these three categories to facilitate this assessment. We require a contractor to produce a vulnerability dataset to be used within CCRA4 commissioned and in-house analyses. This dataset will be a key input into our research and will need to give an up-to-date spatial mapping of key vulnerabilities to climate change impacts across the UK and an indication of future vulnerabilities. 3 Aims and Objectives The CCC is looking to generate a database of indicators of vulnerability against climate change risks (as identified by CCRA), geographically mapped across the UK (including the Devolved Administrations (DAs) of Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and inhabited islands). The dataset should capture the key characteristics of households, businesses and local communities/economies that could drive vulnerability to the risks identified in CCRA3. These include: *** See Specification for more detail **** Additional information: 12.03.24 - Update 12th Mar - closing date changed to 28th March 2024 12.04.23 - Revised documents with only a revised closing date

The CCC is currently collecting evidence and preparing its advice for the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4), due for publication in 2026. This will look to assess the risks the UK faces today and in the future, and assess adaptation actions that can be taken to reduce these risks. As part of CCRA4, we will be developing a new output to complement the Technical Report, as produced in previous CCRAs and assesses the range of risks and opportunities facing the UK from climate change and the urgency for adaptation in the next five years. This output - to be known as the 'Well-adapted UK report' (WA report) - will focus on the potential for key adaptation actions to reduce the climate risks threatening the achievement of key UK policy and societal outcomes and hence set out a vision for aspects of a well-adapted UK. The WA report aims to provide a policy-relevant evidence base on effective systemic adaptation scenarios, their costs and benefits (and how these are distributed across society) and the investment needs to deliver on them. One aspect of the WA report will consider the resilience of particularly critical sectors in the UK, and to inform these assessments we are commissioning analysis to assess the required level of resilience to minimise future rising risks associated with climate change, including quantification of a cost-optimal level of resilience. One of the areas we are assessing in depth is the resilience of cold supply chains in the UK. We would like to better understand how climate change could disrupt the UK's supply of essential goods that rely on a temperature-controlled supply chain. Specifically, we are interested in assessing the exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the UK cold chain to temperature related climate hazards and evaluating cost optimal adaptation measures for the sector. We anticipate that the scale and complexity of the UK's cold supply chain will be difficult to analyse effectively in its entirety, so we propose developing a 'component analysis' which looks in depth at a range of tangible 'parts' of the supply chain to help build a national level picture of risk exposure and paths to resilience. We will be commissioning this research in two parts. The purpose of this specification is to commission Part 1 - a scoping study to develop the evidence base through a 'component analysis' covering a range of specific 'parts' of the cold supply chain which would be assessed in detail in a potential follow-on study (Part 2 - to be commissioned separately following completion of this scoping study). **** See Specification for more detail **** Additional information: UPDATE - 08.05.24 - Revised Specification - no changes to content other than to align closing date to the 16th May 24

The final date and time for the submission of bids is Monday 19th February 2024 at 11:00. DO NOT apply directly to the buyer. All tender information MUST be submitted through the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal. Brief Description of Requirement UK Shared Business Services Limited (UK SBS) on behalf of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) invite you to this Request for Proposal for a Technical Report to support the Fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4). This project will develop the CCRA4-IA Technical Report to be delivered to the CCC by 1st October 2025 and to be published in mid-2026. This report will seek to answer the following question: How has the evidence on the full range of risks that face the UK, and their urgency, continued to evolve over the last five years? This report will seek to update the CCRA3-IA Technical Report to include the most up-to-date understanding of UK climate change risks and opportunities. Project tasks The following section outlines the key tasks the successful supplier will be expected to complete. Bids should propose approaches for the completion of each task and provide a programme for delivery including key milestones. This project will involve the following nine tasks: 1. Agree and implement a plan for co-developing the analysis and outputs with key stakeholders. 2. Review the use of CCRA3-IA Technical Report information in national adaptation programmes across the UK. 3. Review the set of CCRA3 risks and opportunities and refine the CCRA urgency scoring for the "more action needed" category. 4. Conduct an open call for evidence to feed into assessment of the risks and opportunities. 5. Conduct an initial review of all risks and opportunities against available new evidence to identify a sub-set for full urgency scoring application. 6. Conduct a detailed assessment for a selected subset of risks, using the full CCRA4 urgency scoring. 7. Develop the interim version of the assessment, working with key stakeholders to ensure all outputs are drafted in alignment with their accessibility needs. 8. Publish an interim version of the report for community review. 9. Revision and finalisation of the CCRA4-IA Technical Report. Please ensure you review all attached information to ensure a full understanding of this requirement. All attachments can be found with the Supplier Attachments tab within the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal. This contract will be awarded based on the evaluation criteria as set out in the RFP document. How to Apply UK Shared Business Services Ltd (UKSBS) will be using the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal for this procurement. To register on the Jaggaer eSourcing portal please use the link https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/ and follow the instructions to register as a supplier. If you are already registered on the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal and wish to participate in this procurement, please use the link: https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/. Once you are logged into the system you will be able to locate the Procurement you wish to leave a bid on by clicking the ITTs Open to All Suppliers and searching for the reference number itt_1373 / BE23235